GrSaleToGrOverhead · Sales growth · Abarbanell and Bushee (1998)

Sales growth over overhead growth

Long minus short quintile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1952Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per quarter

Next quarter

0.35%

95% interval −0.23% to 1.00%

Next year

0.33%

95% interval −0.23% to 0.95%

Next five years

0.30%

95% interval −0.24% to 0.87%

Next quarter

0.44%

95% interval −0.19% to 1.44%

Next year

0.38%

95% interval −0.18% to 1.23%

Next five years

0.20%

95% interval −0.22% to 0.72%

Next quarter

0.37%

95% interval −0.40% to 1.14%

Next year

0.36%

95% interval −0.41% to 1.14%

Next five years

0.35%

95% interval −0.44% to 1.14%

Next quarter

0.11%

95% interval −0.44% to 1.01%

Next year

0.08%

95% interval −0.44% to 0.87%

Next five years

0.00%

95% interval −0.46% to 0.54%

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+75% since 1952Q3 · log scale

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1952Q3–2024Q4	1.22%	9.50%	0.13	1.10
2020Q1–2024Q4	2.23%	12.73%	0.18	0.39
2024Q1–2024Q4	27.87%	5.13%	5.43	5.43
1952Q3–2024Q4	0.43%	6.20%	0.07	0.59
2020Q1–2024Q4	1.72%	10.14%	0.17	0.38
2024Q1–2024Q4	20.99%	8.87%	2.37	2.37
1952Q3–2024Q4	1.46%	13.60%	0.11	0.92
2020Q1–2024Q4	3.36%	23.06%	0.15	0.33
2024Q1–2024Q4	29.80%	13.19%	2.26	2.26
1952Q3–2024Q4	−0.23%	7.69%	−0.03	−0.25
2020Q1–2024Q4	−0.03%	14.49%	−0.00	−0.00
2024Q1–2024Q4	25.79%	8.07%	3.19	3.19

Horizon	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
Next quarter	0.073	−0.048 – 0.211	0.12
Next year	0.071	−0.047 – 0.200	0.13
Next five years	0.063	−0.052 – 0.183	0.14
Next quarter	0.143	−0.060 – 0.475	0.13
Next year	0.122	−0.059 – 0.400	0.14
Next five years	0.064	−0.071 – 0.231	0.20
Next quarter	0.055	−0.059 – 0.167	0.17
Next year	0.054	−0.059 – 0.167	0.17
Next five years	0.051	−0.064 – 0.167	0.19
Next quarter	0.029	−0.115 – 0.265	0.42
Next year	0.021	−0.114 – 0.226	0.43
Next five years	0.000	−0.120 – 0.140	0.52