GrSaleToGrInv · Sales growth · Abarbanell and Bushee (1998)

Sales growth over inventory growth

Long minus short quintile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1952Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per quarter

Next quarter

0.71%

95% interval 0.27% to 1.14%

Next year

0.71%

95% interval 0.22% to 1.19%

Next five years

0.71%

95% interval 0.03% to 1.35%

Next quarter

0.10%

95% interval −0.16% to 0.41%

Next year

0.17%

95% interval −0.13% to 0.50%

Next five years

0.39%

95% interval −0.03% to 0.79%

Next quarter

0.58%

95% interval 0.02% to 1.17%

Next year

0.60%

95% interval −0.01% to 1.21%

Next five years

0.65%

95% interval −0.10% to 1.35%

Next quarter

−0.55%

95% interval −0.93% to −0.05%

Next year

−0.37%

95% interval −0.80% to 0.13%

Next five years

0.16%

95% interval −0.44% to 0.74%

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+982% since 1952Q3 · log scale

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1952Q3–2024Q4	3.66%	8.57%	0.43	3.64
2020Q1–2024Q4	1.76%	12.92%	0.14	0.31
2024Q1–2024Q4	3.64%	12.92%	0.28	0.28
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.73%	5.00%	0.55	4.65
2020Q1–2024Q4	−3.58%	6.56%	−0.55	−1.22
2024Q1–2024Q4	0.97%	1.87%	0.51	0.51
1952Q3–2024Q4	3.24%	10.39%	0.31	2.65
2020Q1–2024Q4	2.71%	14.63%	0.19	0.41
2024Q1–2024Q4	−2.86%	14.93%	−0.19	−0.19
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.54%	7.01%	0.36	3.09
2020Q1–2024Q4	−8.79%	8.24%	−1.07	−2.39
2024Q1–2024Q4	−6.84%	3.73%	−1.84	−1.84

Horizon	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
Next quarter	0.168	0.064 – 0.270	0.00
Next year	0.167	0.052 – 0.281	0.00
Next five years	0.165	0.008 – 0.315	0.02
Next quarter	0.039	−0.065 – 0.164	0.25
Next year	0.069	−0.051 – 0.200	0.13
Next five years	0.155	−0.013 – 0.318	0.03
Next quarter	0.112	0.004 – 0.226	0.02
Next year	0.115	−0.002 – 0.233	0.03
Next five years	0.125	−0.020 – 0.260	0.04
Next quarter	−0.160	−0.275 – −0.014	0.98
Next year	−0.106	−0.233 – 0.037	0.93
Next five years	0.046	−0.124 – 0.212	0.29