hire · Investment alt · Bazdresch, Belo and Lin (2014)

Employment growth

Long minus short quintile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1965Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per quarter

Next quarter

0.34%

95% interval −0.48% to 1.11%

Next year

0.36%

95% interval −0.45% to 1.10%

Next five years

0.42%

95% interval −0.38% to 1.14%

Next quarter

1.06%

95% interval 0.38% to 1.73%

Next year

1.08%

95% interval 0.38% to 1.74%

Next five years

1.14%

95% interval 0.35% to 1.80%

Next quarter

0.93%

95% interval 0.11% to 1.75%

Next year

0.91%

95% interval 0.10% to 1.73%

Next five years

0.85%

95% interval 0.01% to 1.69%

Next quarter

1.37%

95% interval 0.46% to 2.34%

Next year

1.42%

95% interval 0.47% to 2.37%

Next five years

1.57%

95% interval 0.44% to 2.52%

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+148% since 1965Q3 · log scale

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1965Q3–2024Q4	2.14%	11.10%	0.19	1.49
2020Q1–2024Q4	−2.38%	19.99%	−0.12	−0.27
2024Q1–2024Q4	−3.85%	12.13%	−0.32	−0.32
1965Q3–2024Q4	5.81%	8.94%	0.65	5.01
2020Q1–2024Q4	8.46%	11.48%	0.74	1.65
2024Q1–2024Q4	−0.40%	4.69%	−0.09	−0.09
1965Q3–2024Q4	3.72%	12.79%	0.29	2.24
2020Q1–2024Q4	8.54%	15.44%	0.55	1.24
2024Q1–2024Q4	13.40%	4.80%	2.79	2.79
1965Q3–2024Q4	8.63%	11.63%	0.74	5.73
2020Q1–2024Q4	11.92%	14.39%	0.83	1.85
2024Q1–2024Q4	0.69%	6.71%	0.10	0.10

Horizon	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
Next quarter	0.061	−0.086 – 0.199	0.21
Next year	0.065	−0.081 – 0.198	0.18
Next five years	0.075	−0.069 – 0.206	0.14
Next quarter	0.238	0.087 – 0.387	0.00
Next year	0.243	0.085 – 0.389	0.00
Next five years	0.255	0.078 – 0.403	0.00
Next quarter	0.145	0.017 – 0.275	0.01
Next year	0.142	0.016 – 0.271	0.01
Next five years	0.132	0.001 – 0.264	0.02
Next quarter	0.238	0.081 – 0.404	0.00
Next year	0.246	0.081 – 0.408	0.00
Next five years	0.270	0.076 – 0.435	0.00