TotalAccruals · Investment alt · Richardson et al. (2005)

Total accruals

Long minus short quintile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1952Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per quarter

Next quarter

0.13%

95% interval −1.09% to 0.99%

Next year

0.20%

95% interval −0.87% to 0.98%

Next five years

0.40%

95% interval −0.35% to 1.01%

Next quarter

0.32%

95% interval −0.54% to 1.11%

Next year

0.37%

95% interval −0.45% to 1.11%

Next five years

0.52%

95% interval −0.24% to 1.17%

Next quarter

−1.46%

95% interval −4.30% to 0.66%

Next year

−1.20%

95% interval −3.60% to 0.62%

Next five years

−0.45%

95% interval −1.80% to 0.61%

Next quarter

0.47%

95% interval −0.54% to 1.33%

Next year

0.50%

95% interval −0.46% to 1.32%

Next five years

0.58%

95% interval −0.29% to 1.36%

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+294% since 1952Q3 · log scale

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.32%	9.20%	0.25	2.14
2020Q1–2024Q4	−2.42%	14.25%	−0.17	−0.38
2024Q1–2024Q4	−28.11%	16.86%	−1.67	−1.67
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.78%	10.11%	0.27	2.34
2020Q1–2024Q4	1.91%	14.04%	0.14	0.30
2024Q1–2024Q4	−7.17%	14.74%	−0.49	−0.49
1952Q3–2024Q4	−0.09%	13.97%	−0.01	−0.06
2020Q1–2024Q4	−15.71%	21.42%	−0.73	−1.64
2024Q1–2024Q4	−58.94%	14.36%	−4.10	−4.10
1952Q3–2024Q4	2.81%	12.88%	0.22	1.86
2020Q1–2024Q4	5.31%	18.70%	0.28	0.63
2024Q1–2024Q4	−13.34%	22.53%	−0.59	−0.59

Horizon	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
Next quarter	0.029	−0.241 – 0.215	0.36
Next year	0.043	−0.190 – 0.213	0.31
Next five years	0.086	−0.076 – 0.218	0.12
Next quarter	0.064	−0.108 – 0.220	0.24
Next year	0.074	−0.090 – 0.220	0.18
Next five years	0.102	−0.048 – 0.232	0.08
Next quarter	−0.212	−0.628 – 0.094	0.84
Next year	−0.173	−0.521 – 0.089	0.83
Next five years	−0.064	−0.257 – 0.088	0.75
Next quarter	0.074	−0.085 – 0.207	0.15
Next year	0.078	−0.072 – 0.206	0.13
Next five years	0.090	−0.044 – 0.211	0.08