MeanRankRevGrowth · Sales growth · Lakonishok, Shleifer, Vishny (1994)

Revenue Growth Rank

Long minus short quintile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1957Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per quarter

Next quarter

0.98%

95% interval 0.34% to 1.70%

Next year

0.95%

95% interval 0.32% to 1.64%

Next five years

0.87%

95% interval 0.22% to 1.53%

Next quarter

0.94%

95% interval 0.43% to 1.48%

Next year

0.89%

95% interval 0.40% to 1.41%

Next five years

0.76%

95% interval 0.22% to 1.31%

Next quarter

0.72%

95% interval 0.05% to 1.38%

Next year

0.69%

95% interval −0.05% to 1.43%

Next five years

0.60%

95% interval −0.43% to 1.60%

Next quarter

1.45%

95% interval 0.60% to 2.44%

Next year

1.36%

95% interval 0.59% to 2.25%

Next five years

1.11%

95% interval 0.41% to 1.86%

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+766% since 1957Q3 · log scale

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1957Q3–2024Q4	3.71%	10.08%	0.37	3.02
2020Q1–2024Q4	4.46%	8.99%	0.50	1.11
2024Q1–2024Q4	14.85%	7.67%	1.94	1.94
1957Q3–2024Q4	3.36%	7.68%	0.44	3.59
2020Q1–2024Q4	3.50%	7.84%	0.45	1.00
2024Q1–2024Q4	17.36%	9.28%	1.87	1.87
1957Q3–2024Q4	2.98%	12.93%	0.23	1.89
2020Q1–2024Q4	1.29%	8.69%	0.15	0.33
2024Q1–2024Q4	7.17%	9.13%	0.78	0.78
1957Q3–2024Q4	4.66%	10.45%	0.45	3.66
2020Q1–2024Q4	9.55%	12.54%	0.76	1.70
2024Q1–2024Q4	31.80%	18.78%	1.69	1.69

Horizon	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
Next quarter	0.196	0.067 – 0.341	0.00
Next year	0.189	0.064 – 0.325	0.00
Next five years	0.172	0.044 – 0.302	0.00
Next quarter	0.246	0.112 – 0.391	0.00
Next year	0.234	0.105 – 0.371	0.00
Next five years	0.199	0.057 – 0.341	0.00
Next quarter	0.113	0.008 – 0.215	0.02
Next year	0.108	−0.008 – 0.223	0.03
Next five years	0.093	−0.066 – 0.247	0.12
Next quarter	0.278	0.115 – 0.475	0.00
Next year	0.261	0.113 – 0.434	0.00
Next five years	0.213	0.078 – 0.355	0.00