FirmAge · Info proxy · Barry and Brown (1984)

Firm age based on CRSP

Long minus short quintile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1928Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per quarter

Next quarter

−0.33%

95% interval −0.77% to 0.12%

Next year

−0.33%

95% interval −0.78% to 0.12%

Next five years

−0.33%

95% interval −0.82% to 0.15%

Next quarter

−0.51%

95% interval −0.94% to −0.08%

Next year

−0.51%

95% interval −0.94% to −0.08%

Next five years

−0.50%

95% interval −0.95% to −0.05%

Next quarter

−0.45%

95% interval −0.97% to 0.08%

Next year

−0.45%

95% interval −0.97% to 0.08%

Next five years

−0.46%

95% interval −1.01% to 0.10%

Next quarter

−0.77%

95% interval −1.32% to −0.23%

Next year

−0.75%

95% interval −1.30% to −0.23%

Next five years

−0.71%

95% interval −1.26% to −0.19%

Cumulative market-adjusted return

−83% since 1928Q3 · log scale

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1928Q3–2024Q4	−1.44%	9.06%	−0.16	−1.57
2020Q1–2024Q4	−2.62%	20.87%	−0.13	−0.28
2024Q1–2024Q4	5.91%	15.63%	0.38	0.38
1928Q3–2024Q4	−2.10%	8.73%	−0.24	−2.36
2020Q1–2024Q4	−4.24%	17.67%	−0.24	−0.54
2024Q1–2024Q4	6.13%	24.10%	0.25	0.25
1927Q2–2024Q4	−1.99%	10.57%	−0.19	−1.86
2020Q1–2024Q4	−5.90%	22.09%	−0.27	−0.60
2024Q1–2024Q4	12.98%	9.52%	1.36	1.36
1927Q2–2024Q4	−2.96%	10.23%	−0.29	−2.86
2020Q1–2024Q4	−7.20%	17.76%	−0.41	−0.91
2024Q1–2024Q4	4.79%	17.87%	0.27	0.27

Horizon	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
Next quarter	−0.073	−0.171 – 0.026	0.93
Next year	−0.073	−0.172 – 0.027	0.93
Next five years	−0.074	−0.180 – 0.033	0.92
Next quarter	−0.117	−0.215 – −0.018	0.99
Next year	−0.116	−0.215 – −0.017	0.99
Next five years	−0.114	−0.217 – −0.011	0.98
Next quarter	−0.085	−0.183 – 0.015	0.95
Next year	−0.086	−0.184 – 0.016	0.95
Next five years	−0.087	−0.190 – 0.019	0.95
Next quarter	−0.151	−0.258 – −0.044	1.00
Next year	−0.148	−0.254 – −0.045	1.00
Next five years	−0.139	−0.246 – −0.037	1.00