DelCOL · External financing · Richardson et al. (2005)

Change in current operating liabilities

Long minus short quintile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1952Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per quarter

Next quarter

−0.10%

95% interval −0.71% to 0.50%

Next year

−0.10%

95% interval −0.71% to 0.50%

Next five years

−0.10%

95% interval −0.73% to 0.52%

Next quarter

0.79%

95% interval 0.44% to 1.16%

Next year

0.78%

95% interval 0.39% to 1.18%

Next five years

0.76%

95% interval 0.23% to 1.24%

Next quarter

0.03%

95% interval −0.79% to 0.91%

Next year

0.01%

95% interval −0.78% to 0.86%

Next five years

−0.04%

95% interval −0.80% to 0.77%

Next quarter

1.29%

95% interval 0.86% to 1.70%

Next year

1.23%

95% interval 0.77% to 1.69%

Next five years

1.06%

95% interval 0.42% to 1.67%

Cumulative market-adjusted return

−54% since 1952Q3 · log scale

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1952Q3–2024Q4	−0.46%	10.94%	−0.04	−0.35
2020Q1–2024Q4	−1.23%	14.42%	−0.09	−0.19
2024Q1–2024Q4	−2.22%	10.01%	−0.22	−0.22
1952Q3–2024Q4	3.69%	6.84%	0.54	4.59
2020Q1–2024Q4	5.88%	9.60%	0.61	1.37
2024Q1–2024Q4	−1.32%	9.70%	−0.14	−0.14
1952Q3–2024Q4	−0.30%	13.23%	−0.02	−0.19
2020Q1–2024Q4	9.83%	17.61%	0.56	1.25
2024Q1–2024Q4	5.86%	8.64%	0.68	0.68
1952Q3–2024Q4	5.03%	8.15%	0.62	5.26
2020Q1–2024Q4	8.90%	10.08%	0.88	1.97
2024Q1–2024Q4	3.68%	9.60%	0.38	0.38

Horizon	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
Next quarter	−0.019	−0.129 – 0.091	0.63
Next year	−0.019	−0.130 – 0.092	0.63
Next five years	−0.019	−0.133 – 0.094	0.63
Next quarter	0.233	0.128 – 0.341	0.00
Next year	0.230	0.114 – 0.346	0.00
Next five years	0.222	0.069 – 0.362	0.00
Next quarter	0.004	−0.119 – 0.139	0.49
Next year	0.001	−0.118 – 0.130	0.50
Next five years	−0.006	−0.121 – 0.116	0.55
Next quarter	0.319	0.210 – 0.423	0.00
Next year	0.304	0.189 – 0.418	0.00
Next five years	0.260	0.102 – 0.410	0.00