CitationsRD · Profitability alt · Hirschleifer, Hsu and Li (2013)

Citations to RD expenses

Long minus short portfolio using the original paper's sort and weighting, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1977Q3 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per quarter

Next quarter

0.38%

95% interval −0.24% to 0.93%

Next year

0.39%

95% interval −0.21% to 0.94%

Next five years

0.44%

95% interval −0.16% to 0.98%

OAP publishes no uniform quintile or decile portfolios for this signal, so only the paper's original portfolio convention is shown.

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+159% since 1977Q3 · log scale

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1977Q3–2024Q4	2.26%	7.20%	0.31	2.17
2020Q1–2024Q4	0.80%	10.60%	0.08	0.17
2024Q1–2024Q4	−3.91%	18.55%	−0.21	−0.21

Horizon	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
Next quarter	0.105	−0.066 – 0.260	0.10
Next year	0.110	−0.058 – 0.260	0.09
Next five years	0.122	−0.044 – 0.271	0.07