AgeIPO · Other · Ritter (1991)

IPO and age

Long minus short quintile portfolio, value-weighted, market-adjusted. Quarterly, 1981Q2 to 2024Q4.

Expected return · posterior mean, % per quarter

Next quarter

3.43%

95% interval 1.51% to 5.67%

Next year

3.30%

95% interval 1.49% to 5.31%

Next five years

2.92%

95% interval 1.08% to 4.76%

Next quarter

3.07%

95% interval 1.24% to 5.30%

Next year

2.91%

95% interval 1.22% to 4.88%

Next five years

2.47%

95% interval 0.83% to 4.13%

Next quarter

3.15%

95% interval 1.09% to 5.16%

Next year

3.01%

95% interval 0.95% to 5.08%

Next five years

2.60%

95% interval 0.07% to 5.02%

Next quarter

2.78%

95% interval 1.21% to 4.33%

Next year

2.72%

95% interval 1.05% to 4.40%

Next five years

2.55%

95% interval 0.32% to 4.61%

Cumulative market-adjusted return

+10,793% since 1981Q2 · log scale

Window	Mean	Vol.	Sharpe	t
1981Q2–2024Q4	13.51%	23.55%	0.57	3.80
2020Q1–2024Q4	10.70%	27.62%	0.39	0.87
2024Q1–2024Q4	50.65%	8.47%	5.98	5.98
1981Q2–2024Q4	11.14%	20.29%	0.55	3.63
2020Q1–2024Q4	9.89%	29.79%	0.33	0.74
2024Q1–2024Q4	42.38%	13.60%	3.12	3.12
1981Q2–2024Q4	12.90%	28.77%	0.45	2.97
2020Q1–2024Q4	−6.64%	32.54%	−0.20	−0.46
2024Q1–2024Q4	49.52%	6.92%	7.15	7.15
1981Q2–2024Q4	13.16%	24.36%	0.54	3.57
2020Q1–2024Q4	−0.63%	30.31%	−0.02	−0.05
2024Q1–2024Q4	27.15%	23.96%	1.13	1.13

Horizon	Mean	95% interval	P(neg)
Next quarter	0.293	0.128 – 0.491	0.00
Next year	0.281	0.126 – 0.455	0.00
Next five years	0.248	0.091 – 0.405	0.00
Next quarter	0.304	0.122 – 0.533	0.00
Next year	0.288	0.120 – 0.486	0.00
Next five years	0.243	0.082 – 0.406	0.00
Next quarter	0.221	0.076 – 0.366	0.00
Next year	0.210	0.066 – 0.357	0.00
Next five years	0.181	0.005 – 0.350	0.02
Next quarter	0.230	0.099 – 0.359	0.00
Next year	0.224	0.086 – 0.362	0.00
Next five years	0.209	0.027 – 0.377	0.01